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Nearly One-Half of Districts Will Lose Students in the Next Few Years
Any discussion of revenue controls must address changes in student population because the amount of money a district can raise is a function of student enrollment. If a district loses or gains students, the amount of revenues that can be raised is decreased or increased accordingly.
In this year’s study, 47% of superintendents say that their district will have fewer students in the next four to five years. On average, superintendents from these districts project an enrollment decline in the range of 5% to 8%. Under Wisconsin’s revenue caps law, the amount of money that a district loses due to declining enrollment often is disproportionate to the actual savings that are realized.
For example, if a district loses one or two students at each grade level (say, for a total of 23 students), this does not mean that the district can eliminate one teaching position. Furthermore, many of the costs of operating a school system, such as heat, electricity, transportation, or maintenance, are not reduced simply because there are one or two fewer students in each classroom.
Conversely, 20% of districts project an increase in student enrollment (approximately 4-5%). While 30% say that enrollment will remain about the same, 2% answered “Not sure.” Districts with increasing enrollments are not immune from the effects of the revenue caps. If a district is fast-growing, it may require additional staff, along with books and other materials, that may be difficult to fund under revenue controls.
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Percent change |
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| Change in enrollment |
# of districts |
% of districts |
Mean |
Median |
Increase |
70 |
20% |
5% |
4% |
Decrease |
162 |
47% |
8% |
5% |
About the same |
104 |
30% |
- |
- |
Not sure |
5 |
2% |
- |
- |
Previous studies have shown a significant relationship between enrollment trends and concerns about educational quality. In general, superintendents from districts that have lost students, or are projected to do so, have been far more critical of revenue controls than superintendents from districts with stable or growing student populations.