There is a direct relationship between projected changes in student enrollment over the next four to five years and perceptions about educational quality. Not surprisingly, superintendents from districts expected to decline in enrollment are more likely to project a lower level of future educational quality.

Table 6 places districts into one of three categories, based on projected enrollment trends over the next several years: (1) increase, (2) decrease, and (3) about the same. The final two columns show responses to the two questions described above.

Table 6
Relationship Between Projections in Student Enrollment and Perceptions about School Quality

Projected change in enrollment	Projected mean score on 10-point scale	Effects to date on five-point scale
Increase	7.6	3.6
Stay about the same	6.9	3.7
Decrease	6.0	3.8
Not Sure/Didn't Answer*	--	--

Table 6 shows that for districts expecting an increase in student enrollment the overall quality is expected to drop from "8" to "7.6." However, in districts that are expected to decline in population or remain stable, the drop in overall quality is significantly greater, dropping to "6.0" and "6.9," respectively.

Superintendents were asked to explain projections about future educational quality. Among districts expected to drop in quality, many superintendents said that declining enrollments would be responsible. Many others who projected a drop in quality did not make reference to changes in student population, but instead talked about the cumulative, long-term effects of the revenue caps. A complete list of comments can be found in the Appendix.