In each of the previous studies, it has been shown that districts with declining enrollments reported more cost-cutting actions than districts with increasing or stable student populations. Superintendents from declining enrollment districts also have been more critical of the revenue caps than superintendents from districts in which the student population was stable or increasing.

In this study, superintendents were asked about their future enrollments, based on their district's census. One in five districts projects an increase over the next four to five years, compared with nearly one-half that project a decline. The rest, 30%, say that student enrollment will remain about the same (see Table 3).

Table 3
Projected changes in student enrollment over the next four to five years

	% of districts	expected change in mean	expected change in median
Increase	22.2%	7.7%	3.0%
Decrease	47.8%	6.9%	5.0%
About the Same	28.5%	---	---
Don't Know	1.5%	---	---

Among districts projecting an increase in enrollment, the median increase over the next four to five years is estimated to be approximately 3% (mean = 8%). Among districts expected to decline in student enrollment, the median decrease is 5% (mean = 7%).